Mississippi flood risk predicted near-normal

By Shelia Tomkins

With melting snow and the anticipated arrival of spring, Guttenberg residents have learned to keep an eye on river levels as the traditional spring crest on the Mississippi River approaches.

The latest forecast from the National Weather Services lists the risk of Mississippi River flooding this spring at near-normal to slightly below normal for the Guttenberg area.

Each spring, the NWS releases periodic assessments on the chances of flooding caused by snow melt. The outlook takes into account such factors as autumn river levels, soil moisture saturation, and the amount of snowpack in areas to the north that drain into the Mississippi.

Last year saw drier-than-average conditions in the summer and fall for areas north of Iowa. Soil moisture is also on the low side in most areas to the north. An unknown factor — the amount of spring rainfall — could skew the current outlook and result in higher river levels if rainfall is higher than expected. 

Another factor in flood risk is the rate of snowfall melt. The current pattern of warmer temperatures during the day and below-freezing temps at night leads to a more gradual run off snowmelt into area rivers and streams, resulting in less flood risk.

In Guttenberg, flood stage is 15 feet and major flood stage is 21 feet. The historic flood crest here was 23.65 feet in 1965. As of March 5, the river level at Guttenberg stood at  7.58 feet.